Republicans lead in Florida governor, Senate, attorney general and agriculture races, poll shows
A poll released on October 9, 2026 indicates Republican candidates are ahead in Florida’s key statewide races for governor, U.S. Senate, attorney general and commissioner of agriculture.
The survey, conducted by Targoz Market Research for The James Madison Institute between Sept. 28 and Oct. 4, sampled 1,200 registered voters, including 857 classified as likely voters, with a margin of error of ±2.77 percentage points.
Among likely voters, Republican Byron Donalds leads the governor’s race at 52% to Democratic candidate David Jolly’s 42%. In the U.S. Senate contest, Republican Ashley Moody also sits at 52% against Angie Nixon’s 42%. Attorney General James Uthmeier holds a 50% to 40% advantage over Jose Javier Rodriguez, while Republican Wilton Simpson leads the agriculture commissioner race 50% to 39%.
The tightest contest appears to be the chief financial officer race, where incumbent Blaise Ingoglia and Democratic challenger Annette Taddeo each garnered 43% of the likely‑voter sample.
Affordability emerged as the top priority for voters, with health care cited by 37% of likely voters, followed by fuel prices at 33% and both housing affordability and taxes/government spending tied at 30%.
On the constitutional amendment front, Amendment 3—a property‑tax relief measure—received support from 63% of likely voters, surpassing the 60% threshold needed for passage. A broader property‑tax levy‑cap concept also found strong backing, with 78% of those familiar with the proposal favoring voter approval for any local tax‑revenue increase beyond set limits.
“From choosing the state’s next leaders to weighing changes to Florida’s Constitution, Florida voters are heading into an important election with consequential decisions before them,” said Robert McClure, president and CEO of The James Madison Institute.
As the November ballot approaches, the poll provides a clear snapshot of voter sentiment, highlighting Republican momentum and the central role of affordability issues in shaping the upcoming election.
