PJM grid faces LOLE crisis by 2030 as data center load spikes
A study commissioned by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission warns that the PJM Interconnection could experience a loss‑of‑load‑expectation (LOLE) of up to 13.20 days per year by 2030 if large‑load data centers continue to expand.
The LOLE metric measures the expected number of hours or days each year that a power grid’s generation fails to meet demand. PJM’s planning criterion sets the target at 0.1, roughly one event every ten years, making the projected figures a stark reliability concern for the grid that supplies electricity to 67 million customers in 13 northeast states.
The analysis, produced by Synapse Energy Economics, Mondre Energy and Aspen Technologies, models two scenarios. In a reference case that follows PJM’s 2026 load forecast, the LOLE for 2030 reaches 0.59—about six times the target. A worst‑case future, with higher‑than‑expected load additions and constrained new supply, pushes the LOLE to 13.20, indicating more than 13 days of load shortfalls each year.
Data‑center growth is identified as the primary driver of the shortfall. The study notes that without any new data centers after 2027, the region would meet the target LOLE of 0.1. Conversely, the addition of roughly 30 GW of peak demand from data centers—out of an overall projected 32 GW increase by 2030—cripples the grid’s ability to maintain reliability.
PJM’s senior manager of external communications, Jeff Shields, acknowledged that new data‑center loads are growing faster than supply. PJM has taken steps under its Ratepayer Protection Pledge, including interconnection queue reforms and reliability backstop procurement, to increase supply and manage demand.
State officials are also moving. Governor Josh Shapiro issued an executive order offering preferential permitting to data‑center projects with peak demand over 25 MW, provided they commit to sourcing electricity from new power supplies. The PUC voted to update emergency curtailment rules and to convene a technical conference on cost allocation for data‑center development.
The report highlights broader supply concerns. While Pennsylvania is projected to remain a net energy exporter in the reference scenario, its exports would fall from about 91 TWh in 2025 to 38 TWh by 2040. In the high‑load, low‑supply scenario, the state becomes a net importer of 5 TWh by 2040.
Recent events underscore the urgency. In July 2026, PJM took emergency steps to avoid widespread blackouts during a heat wave, and the U.S. Department of Energy issued orders to keep some coal‑fired plants online beyond their planned retirements to bolster supply.
PUC Chairman Steve DeFrank called the analysis a clear warning that electricity demand and supply are out of balance and urged “urgent action at PJM and a broader Pennsylvania energy strategy” to keep the grid reliable as data‑center construction accelerates.