New York Democrats lose Jewish support as Mamdani’s policies drive voters toward Republicans
New York Democrats are seeing a sharp decline in support among Jewish voters, according to data analyst Harry Enten, putting the party’s prospects in the 2026 midterms at risk.
The loss is most evident in the governor’s race, where the Democratic margin among Jewish voters has fallen to 13 points, down from a 51‑point lead held by Governor Kathy Hochul in 2022 and a 55‑point advantage for former Governor Andrew Cuomo in 2018. Enten described the change as a 38‑point swing toward Republicans.
"We’re talking about a swing here … of 38 points downward towards the Republicans when it comes to Jewish voters," Enten said.
The same trend appears on the House generic ballot, where the Democratic lead among Jewish voters shrank from 49 points in 2022 to just 13 points now. A Siena University poll shows Republican Bruce Blakeman beating Hochul 46% to 43% among Jewish voters, and Jewish voters also favored Blakeman on the issue of undocumented immigrants (48% to 43%).
Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s policies are at the center of the shift. Mamdani, a self‑identified Democratic socialist, holds a net favorability of minus 23 among Jewish voters, roughly 31 points lower than his overall standing in New York. A September Siena poll found 64% of Jewish voters view Mamdani unfavorably compared with 33% who hold a favorable view.
Exit polls from Mamdani’s 2025 mayoral victory showed he captured about a third of the city’s Jewish vote, while former Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, secured roughly 63% of that demographic. The decline in Jewish support for both Mamdani and Governor Hochul is now reflected in broader state‑wide polling and could have a decisive impact on the competitive NY‑17 congressional district, a heavily Jewish seat currently held by Republican Rep. Mike Lawner.
Prediction‑market data from Kalshi gives Lawner a 39% chance of retaining the NY‑17 seat, a figure that could rise if the Jewish electorate continues to shift toward the GOP. The district was narrowly won by Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024, and Democratic challenger Cait Conley now faces a potentially tougher race as Jewish voters reassess their party alignment.
Analysts warn that the erosion of Jewish support may affect not only the governor’s race but also the broader midterm outlook, where Republicans aim to maintain control of both chambers of Congress. As the 2026 elections approach, the Democratic Party’s ability to regain confidence among Jewish voters will be a critical factor in New York’s political landscape.
