Minnesota poll shows virtual tie in governor and U.S. Senate races

A Co/efficient poll fielded September 14‑15 shows Minnesota’s governor and U.S. Senate races dead‑locked within the poll’s margin of error, creating a virtual tie for both contests.

The results matter because the state, long considered a Democratic stronghold, could become a decisive battleground for Republicans in November, potentially affecting the balance of power in the U.S. Senate and shaping the state’s policy direction.

In the governor’s race, Democrat Amy Klobuchar holds 47% support against Republican House Speaker Lisa Demuth’s 45%, a two‑point gap that sits inside the poll’s ±3.38‑point error band. The survey of 833 likely voters also shows Republicans narrowly ahead on a generic Senate ballot, 47% to 46%.

The Senate contest is similarly tight, with Democrat Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan at 43% and Republican former broadcaster Michele Tafoya at 42%, also within the margin of error. The same poll records President Donald Trump’s job approval at 37% with 55% disapproval.

Co/efficient, a Republican‑aligned firm, describes the survey as independent and not sponsored by any candidate or party committee. The poll’s findings contrast sharply with the RealClearPolling average, which places Klobuchar ahead of Demuth by 11.5 points and categorizes the governor’s race as “Safe Dem.”

Statewide polling has shifted in recent weeks. A KSTP‑5 poll released a month later shows Klobuchar’s lead narrowing to 47%‑40% and the Senate race tied at 42%‑42%, reflecting a nine‑point swing in the governor’s contest and a five‑point swing toward the Republican Senate candidate.

Republican strategist Dustin Grage, who circulated the Co/efficient numbers, argued the data “shows Minnesota is in play for Republicans up and down the ballot.” The poll arrives amid ongoing fraud scandals tied to Medicaid and pandemic aid, which have dominated Minnesota politics and prompted Governor Tim Walz’s January withdrawal from the 2024 race.

With early voting set to begin in mid‑October, both parties will intensify outreach as the margins remain within statistical error. The next major test will come on Election Day, when the tight figures could tip the state’s delegation—and potentially the Senate balance—toward one side or the other.