Institute for Family Studies finds marriage deserts in major US cities, Detroit at 13%

The Institute for Family Studies released a report on Thursday showing that several major U.S. cities qualify as “marriage deserts,” where fewer than 25% of households with children are headed by married couples.

Detroit tops the list of deserts, with only 13% of such households led by married parents. Cleveland, Washington, D.C., and Milwaukee follow closely, reporting rates between 14% and 17%. In contrast, affluent suburban regions—most notably Fort Bend County, Texas—record marriage rates as high as 79% among adults ages 15 to 64, and some suburban “marriage gardens” reach up to 89%.

The analysis draws on 2020 Census data and examines both the share of adults who are married and the proportion of child‑bearing households with married parents. Researchers found roughly a 70‑point gap between the highest and lowest areas, underscoring a pronounced geographic divide.

“Marriage and raising kids are both parts of your life that really force you to kind of die to yourself and live for others,” said Ken Burchfiel, a research fellow at IFS.

Burchfiel added that cultural norms, rather than income alone, shape marriage decisions. Even in high‑income Manhattan neighborhoods such as the Financial District and Greenwich Village, fewer than 28% of residents ages 15 to 64 are married.

The report emphasizes that family structure is closely tied to economic mobility. Citing Harvard economist Raj Chetty’s research, the study notes that the share of two‑parent households is the strongest predictor of upward mobility in a community. Children growing up in “married‑family gardens” are more likely to see marriage as a stable, ordinary feature of adult life, while those in deserts face greater household churn and inconsistent supervision.

IFS researchers argue that these disparities have broader social implications. “The share of children growing up in two‑parent households is one of the strongest predictors of upward mobility within a community,” the report states, highlighting a potential feedback loop between family stability and economic opportunity.

For couples deciding where to settle, the study recommends consulting the family‑structure maps alongside local job markets and personal circumstances, such as proximity to extended family.

The institute plans to update the data annually and encourages policymakers to consider family‑structure trends when crafting housing, education, and economic‑development strategies.