CNN analyst Harry Enten says Republicans could retain Senate despite Democratic leads
On October 2, 2026, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten told anchor John Berman that Republicans have a very strong chance of holding the United States Senate, even as Democratic candidates lead in recent midterm polls.
The warning comes amid a Marist poll showing Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan (51%‑44%), a USA Today/Suffolk University poll with Democratic Sherrod Brown ahead of Republican Jon Husted in Ohio (47%‑44%), and a Fox News survey giving Democrat Josh Turek a two‑point edge over Republican Ashley Hinson in Iowa.
"We've had really good Democratic polls coming out from Ohio, Michigan, Iowa," Enten said, adding, "There's a very, very strong chance that Republicans hold onto the United States Senate."
Enten emphasized that the GOP has consistently outperformed September poll predictions in the three Midwestern states over the last five election cycles, by nine points in Iowa, six in Ohio and five in Michigan during the 2024 race. He noted a similar pattern in 2018, when Republicans beat September polls by six points in Iowa and Ohio and eight points in Michigan.
"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times, I just have to ask the question: Could it happen again?" Enten remarked, stressing that the Democratic leads could be illusory if history repeats.
The analyst highlighted that, aside from the Midwest, Democrats are expected to carry traditionally Republican states such as Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas. However, if the GOP again outperforms its September numbers, the Senate could end up evenly split, leaving Vice President JD Vance to cast the tie‑breaking vote.
Prediction‑market data adds another layer of uncertainty. The Kalshi market places Abdul El‑Sayed at a 73% chance of winning in Michigan, Sherrod Brown at 61% in Ohio, and Josh Turek at 42% in Iowa, underscoring the competitive nature of these races.
Enten concluded that while Democrats enjoy favorable polling, the historical record of September‑poll surprises warrants caution as the November election approaches.
