Introduction

A comprehensive six‑year analysis released by the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA) reassesses the drivers of violence in Nigeria. The study, covering October 2019 through September 2025, documents over 79,000 deaths and nearly 35,000 abductions linked to armed groups. It shifts the focus from the widely reported Boko Haram insurgency to a broader spectrum of perpetrators, emphasizing the role of so‑called “Fulani Terror Groups.”

Key Findings

ORFA’s data reveals that Fulani militias were responsible for 44% of civilian killings, far surpassing the combined 12% share of Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). The report also highlights that Christian civilians bore a heavier burden, with an estimated 28,551 Christian deaths compared with 13,224 Muslim deaths. Relative to local population sizes, Christians were killed at roughly 4.4 times the rate of Muslims.

The study notes that three‑quarters of civilian fatalities occurred during raids on farming communities, often accompanied by abductions, property destruction, and displacement. While the numbers of Christian and Muslim abductees were similar, field research indicates that Christian captives faced higher ransom demands, longer captivity, and a greater likelihood of execution or sexual violence.

Implications for Policy and Community

By exposing the disproportionate impact on Christian communities, the report calls for a more nuanced security strategy that addresses the full spectrum of armed actors. ORFA urges governments, civil society, and international partners to incorporate religious identity into conflict analysis, protect vulnerable populations, and pursue accountability for perpetrators across all groups.

The findings also stress the danger of conflating the actions of armed Fulani groups with the broader Fulani population, which remains largely peaceful. Recognizing this distinction is essential for fostering inter‑communal trust and preventing further escalation.

Conclusion

The ORFA study provides a data‑driven foundation for re‑evaluating Nigeria’s violence narrative. It underscores the urgent need to protect Christian civilians, address the broader network of armed groups, and adopt inclusive policies that reflect the complex religious dynamics shaping the nation’s security landscape.