Introduction

On 25 June 2026 Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister Radek Sikorski told CBS News that a Russian‑backed false‑flag operation cannot be ruled out as a pretext for an attack on a NATO member. He warned that Moscow might stage a provocative incident, such as a simulated incursion on its own territory, to justify military action against the alliance’s eastern flank.

Analysis

Sikorski emphasized that Ukraine’s strong defence, which has recently recaptured more than 230 square miles of territory, is straining Russian resources. He noted that Russia no longer has air dominance over Ukraine and that the war has become a defensive struggle for Kyiv. This shift, he argued, reduces Russia’s capacity to launch a large‑scale offensive against NATO states.

The Polish leader also called for a united response from NATO, stating that any attempt to deceive the alliance must be met with decisive action. He warned President Vladimir Putin that the West is aware of potential disinformation and that “every inch of NATO territory will be defended.” Sikorski’s remarks reflect Poland’s critical role in supplying Ukraine and its concern over the security of the region.

Supporting Sikorski’s view, Colonel Paweł Szota, head of Poland’s foreign intelligence service, warned that Russia could employ “little green men” – unmarked troops similar to those used in Crimea in 2014 – to carry out limited attacks on the Baltic states. He described such provocations as low‑cost tests of NATO’s resolve, noting that political reactions are often slower than military ones.

Both officials highlighted the importance of clear communication and preparedness. The deputy prime minister stressed that NATO must convey to President Putin that any false‑flag maneuver will be unacceptable and will trigger a collective defence response under Article 5. This stance aligns with broader NATO concerns about Russian provocations along the alliance’s eastern border.

Conclusion

Poland’s warnings underscore the heightened tension in Eastern Europe and the need for vigilance against deceptive tactics. By calling attention to possible false‑flag scenarios, Sikorski and Szota aim to strengthen NATO’s deterrence and assure allies that any aggression, real or staged, will be met with unified resistance.